Within the national campaign context, uncertainty arises from economic volatility, technological advances in mass communication, dramatic national events including wars, and changes in suffrage requirements. Uncertainty is defined as decision makers being unable to accurately predict future conditions, possible options, or final outcomes based on the current situation. ![]() While previous studies have focused on individuals' motivations to vote and candidates' mobilization efforts, this book considers how uncertain national circumstances in the months before the election affect whether people vote or not. The book explores the impact of uncertainty in the national campaign context on nonvoting in presidential and midterm House elections from 1920 through 2012. The results show that relative to such personal factors as age and education, measures of economic volatility, new communication technology, and visible national events decrease nonvoting in both presidential and midterm House elections. The chapter tests an aggregate model across the full time frame from 1920 through 2012 for presidential and midterm House elections. Conversely, the more stable the indicator, the less uncertainty and the more likely nonvoting increases. ![]() The increase in uncertainty produces a decrease in nonvoting. The more change in each indicator, the greater the increase in uncertainty. Abstract: The chapter introduces the specific indicators of uncertainty in the national campaign context, which include economic volatility, technology shock (with the invention of new mass communication devices, including radio, television, cable television, and the Internet), dramatic national events such as US involvement in major international conflicts, and federal expansion of the franchise.
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